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A record number of students applied to university this year prompting fears of a last minute scramble for places before top-up fees are introduced in September 2006.
The Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (Ucas) said it had received 30,000 more applications for full-time courses starting this autumn, up by 8.2% on 2004.
The government is adamant that the new funding arrangements, which include top-up fees of up to 3,000 a year, will not put candidates off. Ministers point to the reintroduction of a 2,700 grant for the poorest students and increased bursaries.
However, any slump in applications for courses starting next year will be interpreted as a sign that the policy has failed.
There were also signs of an exodus from England, with many more sixth-formers applying to universities in Scotland and Wales, where the devolved governments have rejected various fees.
The Department for Education insisted that English students who chose to study in Scotland or Wales would not be better off financially than if they stayed in England.
The higher education minister, Bill Rammell, rejected the idea that the looming top-up fees regime was behind the surge in applications.
The Ucas figures also show a dramatic drop in the number of applications from students in east and south-east Asian countries, which form a large part of the overseas student intake.
Earlier this year the Guardian revealed that universities were becoming increasingly reliant on fees from non-EU students, but the latest figures show that applications from mainland Chinese students have gone down by 23.5%, from Hong Kong by 8.7%, and Singapore by 15.4%.
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